A China-India Reset? What to Expect From the Modi-Xi Summit

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on August 31, 2025. This meeting will happen during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China. The first visit of either leader to the other’s country in six years will occur.

The timing is important. U.S.-India relations have cooled recently. This is because of new U.S. tariffs on Indian goods. This raises questions about how New Delhi will position itself in the world.

China and India last met in 2024 during the BRICS summit in Russia. This time, we expect the meeting to last longer and to be more meaningful. The backdrop makes the summit particularly significant. Many wonder if India is beginning to hedge its partnerships, balancing between Washington and Beijing.

Key Issues on the Table

1. Border Disputes

The disputed Himalayan border will be central to discussions. Both countries have clashed there repeatedly, most recently in 2020, when fighting in the Galwan Valley left at least 24 soldiers dead.

Despite 24 rounds of talks, the issue remains unresolved. Diplomats are now considering an “early harvest” approach, tackling less sensitive sections of the border first.

2. Trade and Economics

China remains one of India’s largest trading partners, though India runs a significant deficit. Trade will be a big topic in the talks. There may also be news about direct flights, easier visas, and business connections.

3. Water and Rivers

The two sides are expected to discuss river cooperation. The Brahmaputra River starts in Tibet and flows into India. A concern arises because China is building dams upstream.

4. Pakistan

China’s close partnership with Pakistan is also likely to come up. India has recently suspended aspects of the Indus Waters Treaty following a terror attack in Kashmir, and Modi could raise cross-border terrorism concerns.

5. Technology and Cultural Ties

There may be smaller announcements on easing restrictions, including the possibility of unbanning Chinese apps like TikTok, which India banned after the 2020 clashes. Resuming people-to-people and cultural ties is another area being discussed.

6. What’s at Stake

No one expects dramatic breakthroughs, but even modest agreements would mark progress after years of tension. Analysts say the summit could be viewed as a “reset,” even if neither leader uses that term.

The bigger picture is India’s relationship with the United States. Recent U.S. tariffs, including penalties tied to Indian oil purchases from Russia, have sparked anger in New Delhi.

Some experts see this summit as an opportunity for India to show it has other options, and for China to position itself as a more reliable partner.

7. Looking Ahead

Whether this meeting leads to a deeper reset remains to be seen. Still, the fact that the two leaders are sitting down after years of strain signals a willingness to move forward.

Observers will be watching closely to see if Modi and Xi announce concrete steps on trade, border talks, or cooperation in multilateral forums like BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Source: CFR

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